Both public and independent purchasing managers' indexes show signs of recovery in world's second-largest economy
China's economy is finally regaining some traction, official and private sector factory surveys showed on Thursday, although they pointed to a sluggish recovery with the latter recording its 12th straight month of slowing growth.
The National Bureau of Statistics reported the official October Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.2 from 49.8 in September.
The surveys add to other signs of economic revival in October after domestic credit curbs and weak demand from overseas markets pushed down third-quarter growth to its lowest rate since the depths of the global financial crisis.
It marked the first reading above 50 – which divides a pick-up in activity from a slowdown – since July and backed the view that growth could be picking up in the world's second-largest economy.
The HSBC Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.5 in October from 47.9 in September. The reading was the highest since February, and deviated more than usual from the October flash, or preliminary, reading of 49.1 released last week.
"October's final PMI rose to an eight-month high, implying that China's industrial activity continues to bottom out following a modest pick-up last month," wrote HSBC economist Hongbin Qu in a statement accompanying the survey.
"This is mainly driven by the increase of new orders, thanks to the filtering-through of the earlier easing measures, while exports outlook remains challenging."
Recent data has shown signs that the economy stabilised in September and the factory surveys are one of the first indications it began perking up in October.
Economic activity in the fourth quarter is widely expected to pick up after annual growth slowed to 7.4% in the third quarter. That would put it on track to beat the government target of full-year growth of 7.5% or above.
The private HSBC PMI captures views mainly of smaller, export-oriented firms in China's vast factory sector.
The employment sub-index rose to its highest level in eight months, but it remained below 50. China has so far avoided the massive job losses or urban unrest feared by the ruling Communist party, which has seen a year of political drama as factions ready for a once-in-a-decade leadership transfer in November.
After monetary loosening moves earlier in the year, credit supply in China has increased while inflation has stayed low, allowing planners to relax and hold off on further measures. Some analysts expect additional moves after the 18th party congress in November to present the new leadership with an economic boost.
The central bank injected a record amount of cash this week via open market operations. That should enable banks to lend more to support the economy.